The Global Trump: Structural US Populism and Economic Conflicts with Europe and Asia

Lecture | February 26 | 5-6 p.m. | 201 Moses Hall

 Paul Welfens, University of Wuppertal

 Institute of European Studies, Department of Economics

Trump’s victory in the 2016 presidential election was largely based on the rise of economic inequality in the United States and his populist message: This populism is likely to become a structural long-run problem for the US. In 2018, Trump’s Council of Economic Advisors published a study in which the US was shown to have an economic lead vis-à-vis European countries of about 20%, but the effective per capita consumption of the US and these countries is almost equal and the effective lifetime consumption of Germany/France is indeed the same as that of the US; US infant mortality is higher than in these countries – if it was the same, an additional rise of the US population of 50 million would occur within 60 years. Trump’s economic and trade policy is inconsistent and risky: with negative spillovers for China/EU, repercussions for the US and challenges for the world economy.

Prof. Dr. Paul J.J. Welfens, President of the European Institute for International Economic Relations at the University of Wuppertal, Jean Monnet Professor for European Economic Integration; Chair for Macroeconomics, Alfred Grosser Professorship 2007/08, Sciences Po, Paris; Research Fellow, IZA, Bonn; Non-Resident Senior Fellow at AICGS/Johns Hopkins University, Washington DC. Welfens has testified before the US Senate, the German Parliament, the European Parliament, the European Central Bank, the IMF, etc. Welfens is one of Europe’s leading economists

 menghini@berkeley.edu