Seismic Hazard Analysis, Capturing Uncertainty in the Post-Truth Era: SEMM and GeoSystems joint seminar

Seminar | February 12 | 12-1 p.m. | 502 Davis Hall

 Dr. William Lettis, Lettis Consultants Internationsl, Inc.

 Civil and Environmental Engineering (CEE)

The earthquake engineering community and regulatory agencies are moving, at varying rates, toward risk-informed engineering decisions and design. Risk-informed decision making, in turn, requires that probabilistic seismic hazard analyses explicitly and transparently incorporate uncertainty in hazard-significant seismic source and ground motion parameters. This uncertainty arises from limited data and from the existence of multiple alternative models that purport to explain these data. When uncertainty in the various inputs to the probabilistic analysis is high but is not properly captured, one may obtain misleading results; one also deprives the decision maker of useful context. Proper quantification of uncertainty also helps guide future research efforts. This presentation will address some of the issues and questions that have evolved in the assessment of uncertainty and suggestions for a path forward in improved communication of uncertainty between scientists, engineers, and earthquake hazard practitioner.