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Seminar 217, Risk Management: Second Order Risk

Seminar: Risk Seminar | March 7 | 11 a.m.-1 p.m. | 639 Evans Hall

Speaker: Peter Shepard, MSCI

Center for Risk Management Research

Managing a portfolio to a risk model can tilt the portfolio toward weaknesses of the model. As a result, the optimized portfolio acquires downside exposure to uncertainty in the model itself, what we call “second order risk.” We propose a risk measure that accounts for this bias. Studies of real portfolios, in asset-by-asset and factor model contexts, demonstrate that second order risk contributes significantly to realized volatility, and that the proposed measure accurately forecasts the out-of-sample behavior of optimized portfolios.