Bob Oliver — Fishy Predictions or Fish Stew

Seminar | November 6 | 3:30-5 p.m. | 3108 Etcheverry Hall

 Bob Oliver, UC Berkeley IEOR

 Industrial Engineering & Operations Research

Because of current federal laws on endangered fish species, water exports to California Aqueducts in San Joaquin Valley and Southern California are restricted by a combination of low Delta Smelt counts and densities in the Bay Delta and judgments by experts. This seminar suggests some ways in which Bayes’ Factors and combinations of forests of Information Odds Scores can help us improve our design of models that analyze large volumes of messy data, develop insights and better understand the major (“causal”) factors that are relevant in predicting future growths or declines in the species. Many different agencies, objectives and prior beliefs are involved.

Bob Oliver is professor emeritus in the Department of Industrial Engineering & Operations Research at UC Berkeley