Regime Type and Minister Tenure in Africa’s Authoritarian Regimes

Colloquium | April 10 | 12:30-2 p.m. | 223 Moses Hall

 Alex Kroeger, Lecturer, UC Merced Department of Political Science

 Center for African Studies

What explains the wide variation in the tenure of cabinet ministers in authoritarian regimes? While existing research has focused on differences in the tenure of ministers in democracies and dictatorships, I examine the influence of regime type on minister tenure in authoritarian regimes. I argue that authoritarian regime type determines both the level of dismissal risk that ministers face as well as how dismissal risk changes as ministers survive in office for longer periods of time. Consistent with theoretical
expectations, event history analyses using a dataset of 6,635 ministers from 37 African countries reveal that ministers in dominant party, personalist, and military regimes face distinct temporal patterns of dismissal risk across their tenure. Ministers in dominant party regimes face a relatively low and constant risk of being dismissed while ministers
in personalist and military regimes are more vulnerable to early dismissal.

Alex Kroeger received his Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Nebraska in May 2017. His research interests include African politics, authoritarian regimes, democratization, government stability, and the political economy of development. His work has been published in the British Journal of Political Science, Comparative Political Studies, the European Journal of Political Economy, and Democratization.

 asc@berkeley.edu